A Vote to Convict Could Equal Votes in 2022
There are 20 Republican Senate seats up for re-election in 2022, along with 4 Democratic Senate seats that could be considered toss-ups. The recent Senate runoff election in Georgia showed that even with Trump not on the ballot, a Republican running with his support may have a hard time winning, even in a state that leans Republican.
Everywhere I’ve read, it’s a foregone conclusion Trump will be cleared. There is unlikely to be evidence of fraud discovered between now and 2022, but there will likely be plenty more evidence uncovered that supports the current impeachment change against Donald Trump. Regardless of your political party, the impeachment managers have already laid out a reasonable manslaughter case for the death of Brian Sicknick.
Back to 2022. There is one way the Republicans can have a chance at both restoring the credibility of our democracy and have the best chance to win the Senate. And that is to vote to convict Donald Trump.
Lets’s look at the 2022 elections:
· Alabama Republican Richard Shelby, retiring, likely to be a Republican, although a historically bad Republican candidate did lose a special election.
· Alaska Republican Party Lisa Murkowski — will face a primary challenge, but may gain cross over support. Seat likely to stay Republican no matter what.
· Arizona Democrat Mark Kelly — won with slim margin in Republican leaning state. Does a Trump Republican defeat him? Probably not. Does a moderate? Quite possible.
· Arkansas Republican John Boozman — will remain Republican, question is whether you lose the primary for telling the truth.
· Florida Republican Party Marco Rubio — an interesting one. Florida now leans Republican. Again, a vote to convict would elicit a primary challenge.
· Georgia Democrat Raphael Warnock — see Mark Kelly above.
· Idaho Republican Mike Crapo — will remain Republican, question is whether you lose the primary for telling the truth.
· Indiana Republican Todd Young- will remain Republican, question is whether you lose the primary for telling the truth.
· Iowa Republican Party Chuck Grassley — Grassley is 87. If he does retire, Iowa could fall into same category as Georgia and Arizona above.
· Kansas Republican Jerry Moran — will remain Republican, question is whether you lose the primary for telling the truth.
· Kentucky Republican Rand Paul — will remain Republican, question is whether you lose the primary for telling the truth. Paul unlikely to vote to convict.
· Louisiana Republican John Neely Kennedy — will remain Republican, question is whether you lose the primary for telling the truth.
· Missouri Republican Roy Blunt — Another interesting one. A state that leans Republican but with negative views of Josh Hawley given his role in inciting the insurrection, will Missouri voters punish Blunt? Voting to convict could help him. If he loses a primary to a Trump supporter though, could put Missouri in same boat as Iowa.
· Nevada Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto — state that leans Democrat, less likely for a Trump backed Republican to win. A moderate more likely.
· New Hampshire Democrat Maggie Hassan — same as Nevada, perhaps even more evenly split
· North Carolina Republican Richard Burr — likely to remain Republican, question is whether you lose the primary for telling the truth. Could this be like Georgia if a Trump backed Republican wins the primary? If Burr votes not to convict, expect that to be a key factor in this race.
· North Dakota Republican John Hoeven — will remain Republican, question is whether you lose the primary for telling the truth. Seems likely to vote to acquit based on comments.
· Ohio Republican Rob Portman — another interesting race. Portman has nothing to lose for voting his conscience. History would look more favorably on him for voting to convict. Same as Missouri/Iowa.
· Oklahoma Republican James Lankford — will remain Republican, question is whether you lose the primary for telling the truth.
· Pennsylvania Republican Pat Toomey — retiring, seems like this could flip to Democrats regardless, but especially so if a Trump backed Republican is nominated.
· South Carolina Republican Tim Scott — will remain Republican. Scott already indicated he will not vote to convict. And Graham won easily with Trump on the ballot. Seems safe Republican. Will vote to acquit.
· South Dakota Republican John Thune — will remain Republican, question is whether you lose the primary for telling the truth.
· Utah Republican Mike Lee — will remain Republican, question is whether you lose the primary for telling the truth. Here you have some coverage as Mitt Romney Republican has already voted once to impeach and is likely to do so again.
· Wisconsin Republican Ron Johnson — this seat seems likely to flip to a Democrat, perhaps the best option is to support Trump given Johnson’s prior support and hope to win on a overly large turnout.
So what do the numbers say?
· 4 Democrat seats in either toss up or lean Republican states. Those are likely to remain Democrat with a Trump backed Republican. A vote to convict would likely help the party in these states.
Of the 20 Republican seats up:
· 2 Republican seats, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, clear opportunities to flip, both votes seem determined (PA to convict, Wisconsin to acquit). A PA vote to convict could help the party.
· 4 Republican seats could be influenced negatively if party does not vote to convict (Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, and North Carolina).
· 1 seat in Florida that could be a wildcard (Rubio).
Of the 20 seats, 4 of these have clearly staked out votes to acquit (Senators Scott, Hoeven, Paul and Johnson). Senators Scott, Hoeven and Paul would still be favored to win re-election in their states.
The real question for the remaining 16 Republican Senate seats would be if the remaining incumbents are more concerned about losing a primary than standing up to tell the truth.
Now, 16 votes are not enough to convict. It will take the votes of all 50 Democrats (likely), all 16 above and at least one of the Republican Senators who are not up for re-election in 2022. There are 4 of those that we know of who could vote to impeach Trump, Senators Romney (Utah), Sasse (Nebraska), Collins (Maine) and Cassidy (Louisiana). Interestingly, two of those Senators could help provide support to other Republican Senators in their 2022 re-election bids should they also choose to convict.
Of course beyond the 20 Senators up for re-election and the 4 discussed above, there are 26 other Republican Senators who will vote. If there is a price to be paid at the polls for their vote, it would not happen until 2024 at the earliest.
By 2024, there may be criminal charges against Trump for not only impeachment but other crimes as well (the obstruction of justice charge if revisited, the questionable tax deductions publicly revealed, the active investigation by the Manhattan district attorney). And there will likely be additional lawsuits that introduce additional evidence of other lies that he told. So by 2024, it is possible the vote to acquit may not hold up as well. And conversely, a challenge in the primary may be less likely to succeed if these facts emerge from various courts of law.
There is one more wild card in this analysis, Mitch McConnell is 78 years old and has six years left, having recently won his election. Would he retire at age 84? His legacy is on the line here. He knows his vote will matter personally and for the party. And he has the ability to bring some Republicans along.
More analysis is needed on the individual states up for 2022 Senate seats as there could be historically good or bad candidates on either side waiting in the wings. On paper though, it does seem the best way for the Republicans to build back the party is to vote to convict. If Trump does get charged and convicted in criminal court, the vote to acquit will look even worse. A Trump trial may or may not happen and if it does, may not conclude before the 2022 elections. If in fact a trial is going on during that time, it would likely be devastating for Republicans.
So while it seems a foregone conclusion that the Senate will vote to acquit, the courage for Republican Senators to stand up and do the right thing is likely to be rewarded at the polls in 2022 as well as restore faith in our democracy.
